Fiscal statistics

PRESS RELEASE - March 28, 2018

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I - Fiscal results

The consolidated public sector posted a primary deficit of R$17.4 billion in February. The Central Government and state-owned companies turned in respective deficits of R$19.0 billion and R$438 million, while the state governments posted a surplus of R$2 billion.

In the year, the public sector turned in a primary surplus of R$29.5 billion, compared with a surplus of R$13.2 billion in the first two months of 2017. In the twelve-month period up to February, the consolidated public sector registered a primary deficit of R$94.3 billion (1.43% of GDP), 0.10 p.p. of GDP lower than the deficit accumulated up to January, of R$100.4 billion.

The consolidated public sector nominal interests, appropriated on an accrual basis, reached R$28.4 billion in February, compared with R$28.3 billion in January. Nominal interests accumulated in the year reached R$56.7 billion, compared with R$67.2 billion in the same period of the previous year. In the twelve-month period, nominal interests reached R$390.3 billion (5.91% of GDP), falling 0.06 p.p. of GDP when compared to January.

The consolidated public sector nominal result, which includes the primary result and nominal interests appropriated, posted a deficit by R$45.8 billion in February and R$27.2 billion in the year. In the twelve-month period up to February, the nominal deficit reached R$484.6 billion (7.34% of GDP), falling 0.15 p.p. of GDP compared to the cumulative deficit up to the previous month.

II - Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) and General Government Gross Debt (GGGD)

PSND reached R$3,431.8 billion (52% of GDP) in February, up 0.2 p.p. of GDP compared to the previous month.

In the year, the 0.4 p.p. increase of the PSND/GDP ratio resulted from the effect of the 1.9% exchange appreciation (increase of 0.3 p.p.), incorporation of nominal interests (increase of 0.9 p.p.), the primary surplus (decrease of 0.4 p.p.) and the effect of nominal GDP growth (decrease of 0.3 p.p.).

GGGD (Federal Government, INSS, state and municipal governments) reached R$4,957.2 billion in January (75.1% of GDP), up 0.6 p.p. of GDP compared to the January result.

III - Expansion of fiscal statistics

As of March, the set of fiscal statistics released to the public will be significantly expanded, with the inclusion of the following items:

1) New tables in the Press Release - Fiscal Statistics: the press release will include tables on the PSND maturity schedule (table 14); the implied interest rate of GGGD (tables 22 to 24); the GGGD maturity schedule (table 25); net issuances per indexing factor for GGGD (table 26); and nominal interests per indexing factor for GGGD (Table 27). These new tables expand the available statistics on PSND and its details and equalize GGGD statistics with those of PSND.

2) Review of the chapter on forecasts of the Central Bank Fiscal Statistics Handbook: this chapter will now detail a method to elaborate PSND and GGGD forecasts, featuring a table to perform forecasts and simulations.

This new set of fiscal statistics also contributes to expand users' ability to perform simulations and forecasts on public debt. In this regard, also as of March, the Central Bank will stop releasing PSND and GGGD figures at the end of each fiscal year. Previously, BCB released exercises on PSND and GGGD stocks at the end of each year, considering defined assumptions such as primary result targets and medians of the Focus Report market forecasts. These mechanical exercises generated noises when interpreted as actual BCB forecasts.