Economic Information

PRESS RELEASE - December 27, 2016

Fiscal Policy
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I - Fiscal results

The consolidated public sector registered a primary deficit of R$39.1 billion in November. The Central Government posted a primary deficit of R$39.9 billion, while the regional Governments and the state-owned companies posted respective primary surpluses of R$421 million and R$314 million.

In the year, the cumulative primary deficit reached R$85.1 billion, compared with a deficit of R$39.5 billion in the same period of 2015. In the 12-month period, there was a primary deficit of R$156.8 billion (2.50% of GDP), increasing by 0.30 p.p. of GDP compared with the previous month.

The nominal interest from the consolidated public sector, appropriated on a accrual basis, reached R$41.3 billion in November, compared to the R$36.2 billion posted in October. The main item that contributed towards this increase was the unfavorable result in foreign exchange swap operations in the month (loss of R$3.9 billion), compared with the favorable result from the previous month (gain of R$2.4 billion). Over the 12-month period, nominal interest totaled R$372.5 billion, compared to the R$449.7 billion in the same period of the previous year. Nominal interest reached R$424.6 billion (6.78% of GDP) over 12 months, rising by 0.25 p.p. of GDP compared to what was recorded in October.

The nominal result, which includes the primary result and the nominal interests appropriated on an accrual basis, posted a deficit of R$80.4 billion in November. In the year, the nominal deficit reached R$457.6 billion, compared with the deficit of R$489.2 billion in the same period of the previous year. Over the 12 month-period, the nominal deficit reached R$581.4 billion (9.28% of GDP), rising by 0.55 p.p. of GDP compared with the value recorded in October.

The nominal deficit in the month was financed through expansions of R$68 billion in securities debt, $14.3 billion in net bank debt and R$938 million in net external financing, which were partially offset by a fall of R$2.8 billion in other domestic financing sources, including the monetary base.

II - Federal securities debt

The domestic federal securities debt, outside the Central Bank, evaluated by the portfolio position, totaled R$2,961.4 billion (47.3% of GDP) in November, increasing by R$52.1 billion compared with the previous month. The result reflected net issuances of R$24.5 billion, increasing of R$1.0 billion due to exchange rate depreciation and incorporation of interest in the amount of R$26.6 billion.

Items worth highlighting were the net issuances of R$13.2 billion in LFT and R$12.5 billion in LTN; and net redemptions of R$1.1 billion in NTN-B.

The percentage share by indexing factors registered the following evolution in relation to September: the percentage of exchange-indexed securities remained at 0.4%; Selic-indexed securities rose from 20.8% to 21%, due to net issuances of LFT; fixed-rate securities increased from 27.1% to 27.2%, as a result of net issuances of LTN; and price-indexed securities fell from 24.6% to 24.3%, due to net redemptions of NTN-B. The share of repo operations fell from 26.9% to 26.8%, showing net sales of R$5.8 billion.

In November, the maturity schedule of the securities debt on the market was as follows: R$0.055 billion, 0.002% of the total, maturing in 2016; R$433.4 billion, 14.6% of the total, maturing in 2017; and R$2,528 billion, 85.4% of the total, maturing as of January 2018.

At the end of November, the total net exposure in exchange swap operations reached R$89.4 billion. The result of these operations in the month was unfavorable to the Central Bank by R$3.9 billion and, in the year, was favorable by R$71.7 billion.

III - Public Sector Net Debt (PSND)

The PSND reached R$2,744.1 billion (43.8% of GDP) in November, rising by 0.1 p.p. of GDP compared with the previous month.

In the year, the PSND/GDP ratio increased by 8.2 p.p., resulting from the incorporation of nominal interest (increase of 5.9 p.p.), exchange rate appreciation of 13% (increase of 2.5 p.p.), the primary deficit (increase of 1.4 p.p.), the effect of nominal GDP growth (decrease of 1.5 p.p.) and the parity adjustment of the basket of currencies that compose the net external debt (decrease of 0.1 p.p.).

The General Government Gross Debt (Federal Government, INSS, state and municipal governments) reached R$4,418.4 billion in November (70.5% of GDP), rising by 1.0 p.p. of GDP compared with the previous month.