Economic Information

PRESS RELEASE - January 27, 2015

Monetary Policy and Financial System Credit Operations
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I - Financial system credit operations

The balance of financial system credit operations reached R$3,217 billion in December, growing by 1.3% in the month and 6.6% in the year (compared to 11.3% in 2014). In the month, the corporate segment increased by 2%, totaling R$1,707 billion, while the household segment grew by 0.6% to R$1,510 billion. The credit/GDP ratio reached 54.2%, compared to 53.8% in November and 53.1% in 2014.

In 2015, the credit slowdown reflected the sluggish economic activity and monetary policy measures, mainly affecting operations in the nonearmarked segment. Similarly, the trajectory of the earmarked segment was conditioned by demand-and-supply restrictions in the household house financing and corporate investment segments. Furthermore, the trajectory of credit operations was also impacted by the increase of the risk perception and the consequent rise of spreads and default levels.

The credit portfolio with nonearmarked resources reached R$1,635 billion, rising by 1.4% in the month and 3.7% in the year (4.6% in 2014). The balance of the corporate segment grew by 2.6% to R$832 billion in December, driven by declines related to end-of-year trade activities, especially discount of trade bills and other nonearmarked credits (mainly acquisition of receivables), as well as increases in advances on exchange contracts and external transfers. Nonearmarked household credit operations grew by 0.2% in December, totaling R$803 billion, with emphasis on credit card transactions with immediate payment.

Earmarked credits totaled R$1,582 billion, growing 1.2% in the month and 9.8% in the year (19.6% in 2014). The balance of the household segment increased by 1.1% to R$706 billion, highlighting the acceleration of rural credit operations. The balance of the corporate segment rose by 1.4% to R$875 billion, driven by investment financing with BNDES resources.

With regard to the borrowers' economic activity segments, it is worth highlighting the increases in the portfolios of the manufacturing industry (mainly food), industrial public utility services (electricity and gas) and trade (food retail), with respective balances of R$465 billion (+0.9%), R$159 billion (+3.9%), and R$307 billion (+2%).

Considering operations above R$1,000, credit balances in the South and Southeast regions totaled R$1,733 billion (+1.4%) and R$556 billion (+1.1%), respectively. In the Northeast region, the balance grew by 1.4%, totaling R$405 billion, while the Central-West region's balance grew by 1.2%, reaching R$332 billion. In the North region, the credit balance reached R$119 billion, registering the lowest growth rate in the month, 0.9%.


I.1 - Interest and default rates

The average interest rate of financial system credit operations, including credit operations with nonearmarked and earmarked resources, reached 29.8% p.y. in December, dropping by 0.6 p.p. in the month and growing by 6.1 p.p. in the year (+1.3 p.p. in 2014). In the nonearmarked segment, the average interest rate closed at 47.3% p.y., falling by 0.8 p.p. in the month and rising by 10 p.p. in the year (+3.9 p.p. in 2014). In the earmarked segment, the average rate reached 9.9% p.y., declining 0.4 p.p. in the month and increasing 2.1 p.p. in the year (+0.3 p.p. in 2014).

In the household segment, the average rate dropped 0.8 p.p. in the month and increased by 7.2 p.p. in the year (+1.6 p.p. in 2014), closing at 37.9% p.y. The average rate of credit operations with nonearmarked resources reached 63.7% p.y., down 1.1 p.p. in the month, reflecting a reduction of 2.8 p.p. under personal credit other than payroll-deducted loans. In the earmarked segment, the average rate reached 9.7% p.y. (-0.3 p.p.), highlighting the reduction of 0.5 p.p. in the average rate of house financing operations.

With regard to corporate loans, the average rate closed at 20.9% p.y., down 0.3 p.p. in month and up 4.4 p.p. in the year (+0.8 p.p. in 2014). As for operations with nonearmarked resources, the rate declined by 0.2 p.p. in the month to 30% p.y. (discount of trade bills: -1.8 p.p.), while, in the segment with earmarked resources, the rate decreased by 0.5 p.p. to 10.1% p.y. (investment financing with BNDES funds: -0.6 p.p.).

The bank spread of operations with nonearmarked and earmarked resources declined by 0.7 p.p. in the month but increased 3.8 p.p. in the year (+1.1 p.p. in 2014), reaching 18.7 p.p. Spreads related to the household and corporate segments reached 26.6 p.p. (-0.8 p.p.) and 9.9 p.p. (-0.6 p.p.), respectively. In the nonearmarked segment, the spread reached 32.1 p.p. (-1.2 p.p. in the month) and, in the earmarked segment, it reached 3.4 p.p. (-0.1 p.p.).

The default rate of financial system credit operations related to credit balances overdue for more than 90 days remained stable in December and increased by 0.7 p.p. in the year (-0.1 p.p. in 2014), corresponding to 3.4%. As regards the household segment, the default rate reached 4.2%, while, in the corporate segment, it reached 2.6%, registering stability in the monthly comparison but growing by 0.5 p.p. and 0.7 p.p. in the year, respectively. The default rates in the nonearmarked and earmarked credit segments reached 5.3% and 1.4%, respectively, with variations of +0.1 p.p. and -0.1 p.p. in the month.


II - Evolution of monetary aggregates

The average daily balance of the monetary base reached R$256.4 billion at the end of 2015, registering a growth of 8.1% in the month and a reduction of 1% in the year, consequent upon increases of 9.2% under currency issued and 1.6% under bank reserves.

Items worth highlighting, among the monthly flows of conditioning factors of the monetary base, are National Treasury operations, with an expansionary impact of R$32 billion, and operations with federal government securities, with a contractionary impact of R$19 billion, as a result of net placements of R$41 billion in the primary market and net purchases of R$22 billion in the secondary market.

The average daily balance of the restricted means of payment (M1) reached R$332.3 billion in December 2015, for a monthly increase of 9.9%, as a result of increases of 9.4% under currency outside banks and 10.5% under demand deposits. M1 dropped by 5.2% in the year. The balance of the means of payment in the M2 concept (corresponding to M1 plus savings deposits and private securities) increased by 2.6% in December, totaling R$2.3 trillion. This variation reflected the increase of 7.6% in M1, expansion of 2% in private securities, with a balance of R$1.3 trillion, and growth of 1.5% in savings deposits, which totaled R$656.6 billion. In the month, net inflows of R$4.8 billion were observed in savings deposits and R$14 billion in time deposits.

M3, which comprises M2, quotas of fixed-income funds and government securities backing repurchase operations between the public and the financial sector, grew by 2.1% in the month, totaling R$4.7 trillion. The balance of quotas of fixed-income funds, which reached R$2.3 trillion in December, increased by 1% when compared to November, while the balance of repurchase operations with federal government securities grew by 8.4%. M4, which comprises M3 and government securities held by the nonfinancial public, grew by 2.4% in the month and 11.3% in the year, reaching R$5.6 trillion.