Economic Information

PRESS RELEASE - December 23, 2016

Monetary Policy and Financial System Credit Operations
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I - Financial system credit operations

The balance of financial system credit operations totaled R$3,104 billion in November, rising by 0.3% in the month and falling by 2.3% over twelve months (respective variations of-0.5% and -2% in the previous month). Operations in the household portfolio totaled R$1,550 billion, growing by 0.7% in the month and 3.2% over 12 months, while the corporate portfolio posted a balance of R$1,554 billion, remaining stable in the month, with a fall of 7.2% over twelve months. The credit/GDP ratio fell back to 49.5% (49.7% in the previous month and 53.1% in November, 2015).

The credit portfolio with nonearmarked resources amounted to R$1,548 billion, expanding by 0.3% in the month and contracting by 4.1% over twelve months. Credit to households totaled R$809 billion, growing by 0.7% in the month and over twelve months, with a tendency for moderate growth being observed in October, highlighted through operations with credit card transactions. The corporate portfolio fell by 0.1% in the month to R$740 billion, the highlights being falls in Advances on Exchange Contracts (adiantamentos de contrato de câmbio - ACC).

The earmarked credit portfolio totaled R$1,556 billion, following an increase of 0.3% in the month and a decrease of 0.4% over twelve months. Household financing grew by 0.6% in the month, totaling R$742 billion, with respective increases of 0.4% and 0.7% in real estate and rural credit. The corporate portfolio remained stable with a balance of R$814 billion.

Among the economic activity sectors, which are operations with nonearmarked and earmarked resources, operations with industry fell by 0.1% in the month, totaling R$760 billion. Credit to the construction industry grew by 3.6%, while there were falls in the balances relating to the extractive (-9%) and utilities (-0.5%) sectors. Credit to the services segment fell by 0.2% to R$736 billion, with there being an increase in credit to the public administration sector (2.6%) and decreases to trade (-0.7%) and transport (-2%).

Considering operations above R$1,000, credit balances grew in all regions of the country, the highlights being the increases of 1.0% in the South (R$549 billion), 0.6% in the Central-West (R$326 billion) and 0.5% in the Northeast (R$398 billion). The North and Southeast regions posted increases of 0.1%, with respective balances of R$116 billion and R$1,662 billion.

I1 - Interest and default rates.

The average interest rate of financial system credit operations, including credit operations with nonearmarked and earmarked resources, reached 33% p.y. in November, falling by 0.3 p.p. in the month and growing by 2.6 p.p. over 12 months. In the nonearmarked segment, the average cost closed at 53.9% p.y. (-0.1 p.p. in the month and + 5.8 p.p. over twelve months) while in the earmarked segment it was 10.6% p.y. (-0.4 p.p. and +0.3 p.p.).

The average rate in the household segment was 42.7% p.y., remaining the same in the month and with a high of 4 p.p. over 12 months. For contracts signed with nonearmarked and earmarked resources, the rates remained at 73.6% p.y. and 10.2% p.y., respectively.

In the corporate segment, the average interest rate reached 21% p.y., following falls of 0.7 p.p. in the month and 0.2 p.p. over 12 months. In November, the rate fell by 0.5 p.p. (to 29.9% p.y.) in contracts signed with nonearmarked resources and 0.9 p.p. (to 11.1% p.y.) in earmarked credit (fall of 1.3 p.p. in investment financing with BNDES resources).

The bank spread of operations with nonearmarked and earmarked resources was 23.5 p.p. in November, decreasing by 0.4 p.p. in the month (+4.1 p.p. over twelve months). This monthly downturn reflected the negative variations of 0.4 p.p., to 41.8 p.p., in operations with nonearmarked resources, and 0.5 p.p., to 3.8 p.p., in operations with earmarked resources. The spread related to households reached 33.1 p.p., while that related to corporations reached 11.6 p.p., falling by 0.2 p.p. and 0.8 p.p., respectively.

The default rate of financial system credit operations related to credit balances overdue for more than 90 days reached 3.8% in November, reflecting variations of -0.1 p.p. in the month and +0.4 p.p. over 12 months. In November, the rate fell by 0.1 p.p. in the corporate and household segments to 4.1% and 3.5%, respectively. The default rate decreased by 0.1 p.p. to 5.8% in the operations with nonearmarked resources, and remained stable at 1.9% in operations with earmarked resources.

II - Evolution of monetary aggregates

The average daily balance of the monetary base showed a balance of R$243.4 billion in November, with a variation of -0.3% in the month (+2.7% over twelve months). These developments in the month reflected a decrease of 0.7% in currency issued and an increase of 2.8% in bank reserves.

Among the monthly flows of factors conditioning the monetary base, items worth highlighting were operations with federal government securities that had a contractionary impact of R$30.2 billion, following net redemptions of R $23.5 billion into the primary market and net sales of R$6.7 billion in the secondary market. In contrast, there was an expansion of R$20.3 billion in national treasury operations; R$3.9 billion in operations with derivatives and R$2.9 billion in external sector operations.

The average daily balance of the restricted means of payment (M1) reached R$310.4 billion in November, falling by 0.3% in the month, resulting from a decline of 0.4% in currency outside banks and a fall of 0.2% in demand deposits. M1 grew by 2.6% over twelve months.

The balance of the means of payment (at end of the period) in the M2 concept - which corresponds to M1 plus savings deposits and private securities - registered a growth of 0.8% in November, totaling R$2.3 trillion. This result followed an increase of 3% in M1; 0.5% in savings deposits, totaling R$650.2 billion; and 0.3% in private securities, whose balance reached R$1.3 trillion. In the month, there was net inflows of R$5.7 billion in demand deposits and of R$1.9 billion in savings deposits.

M3, which comprises M2, quotas of fixed-income funds and government securities backing repurchase operations between the public and the financial sector, grew by 0.2% in the month, totaling R$5.1 trillion. The balance of fixed-income fund quotas increased by 0.2% to R$2.7 trillion, while repurchase operations with government securities fell by 6.9% to R$193.9 billion. M4, which comprises M3 and government securities held by the nonfinancial public, grew by 0.9% in the month and 11.1% over twelve months, totaling R$6 trillion.