Economic Information

PRESS RELEASE - April 28, 2016

Monetary Policy and Financial System Credit Operations
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I - Financial system credit operations

The balance of financial system credit operations reached R$3,161 billion in March, falling by 0.7% in the month and expanding by 3.3% over twelve months (compared with respective variations of -0.5% and 5.2% in February). The monthly variation reflected the decline of 1.6% under the corporate portfolio to R$1,640 billion and the growth of 0.3% under the household portfolio to R$1,520 billion. The credit/GDP ratio dropped from 53.6% to 53.1% (53.2% in March 2015).

The credit portfolio with nonearmarked resources amounted to R$1,592 billion, dropping by 0.6% in the month and increasing by 0.9% in twelve months. The corporate portfolio fell by 1.1% to R$793 billion in the month, highlighting the reductions under those modalities affected by the exchange appreciation observed in the period (transfers abroad and export financing), and working capital. The balance of the corporate segment fell by 0.2% to R$800 billion in month, reflecting declines of 1% under vehicle financing and 0.5% under credit card balances and increase of 0.8% under payroll-deducted loans.

The earmarked credit portfolio totaled R$1,568 billion in March, down 0.7% in the month and up 5.8% in twelve months. The monthly result was due to the decrease of 2% in the corporate segment to R$848 billion, reflecting the impact of exchange appreciation on investment financing with BNDES resources. The balance of the household portfolio increased by 0.9% to R$721 billion, consequent upon expansions of 1.1% in rural credits and 0.8% in house financing.

Among borrowers' economic activity segments, the most significant reductions were observed under transportation (-3.6%, balance of R$162 billion), manufacturing (-1.9%, R$449 billion) and trade (-1.1%, R$287 billion). Conversely, it is worth highlighting the growth in the balances channeled to Public Utility Industrial Services (+0.5%, to R$201 billion).

Considering credit operations above R$1,000 by region, the balances fell by 0.8% in the Southeast (R$1,701 billion), 0.6% in the North (R$117 billion), 0.5% in the Central-West (R$328 billion) and 0.3% in the Northeast (R$402 billion), while the balance in the South region remained stable at R$552 billion.

I.1 - Interest and default rates

The average interest rate of financial system credit operations, including credit operations with nonearmarked and earmarked resources, reached 32% p.y. in March, the highest level since the start of the historical series in March 2011, increasing 0.2 p.p. in the month and 6.1 p.p. in twelve months. In the nonearmarked segment, the rate reached 50.9% p.y. (+0.3 p.p. in the month and +10 p.p. in twelve months), while, in the earmarked segment, the rate reached 10.9% p.y (+0.3 p.p. and + 2.4 p.p., respectively).

In the household segment, the average interest rate amounted to 40.6% p.y., increasing 0.7 p.p. in the month and 7.3 p.p. in twelve months. In the month, interest rates increased by 1.3 p.p. in operations with nonearmarked resources (overdraft accounts, +6.9 p.p.; revolving credit card, +5.2 p.p.) and 0.5 p.p. in operations with earmarked resources (house financing, +0.6 p.p.), reaching 69.2% p.y. and 10.1% p.y., respectively.

With regard to corporate loans, the average interest rate reached 22.2% p.y., declining by 0.4 p.p. in the month and increasing by 4.1 p.p. over twelve months. The monthly reduction was consequent upon operations with nonearmarked resources (-0.9 p.p. to 31% p.y.), highlighting working capital loans (-1.1 p.p.) and export financing (-3.4 p.p.). As for earmarked credits, the rate increased by 0.1 p.p. to 11.9% p.y.

The bank spread of operations with nonearmarked and earmarked resources closed at 21.6 p.p. in March (+0.8 p.p. in the month and +5.2 p.p. in twelve months). The monthly trajectory reflected increases of 1.5 p.p. to 37.3 p.p. under nonearmarked operations and 0.2 p.p. to 4.1 p.p. under earmarked operations. The indicator reached 30 p.p. in the household segment and 12 p.p. in the corporate segment, increasing by 1.1 p.p. and 0.3 p.p., respectively, in the month.

The default rate of financial system credit operations related to credit balances overdue for more than 90 days reached 3.5% in March, remaining stable in the month and increasing by 0.7 p.p. in twelve months. The delinquency rate remained at 4.3% in the household portfolio and rose to 2.9% in the corporate portfolio (+0.1 p.p. in the month). In the nonearmarked segment, the default rate rose by 0.1 p.p. to 5.6%, while, in the earmarked segment, it remained stable at 1.5%.

II - Evolution of monetary aggregates

The average daily balance of the monetary base totaled R$241.1 billion in March, falling by 1.3% in the month and rising by 0.2% in twelve months. The monthly variation reflected a decrease of 1.5% under currency issued and an increase of 0.1% under bank reserves.

Among the monthly flows of factors conditioning the monetary base, the items worth highlighting are the adjustments of operations with derivatives, responsible for a reduction of R$42.7 billion, and operations with federal government securities, which expanded by R$34.8 billion, based on net purchases of R$78.8 billion on the secondary market and net placements of R$44 billion on the primary market.

The average daily balance of the restricted means of payment (M1) reached R$304.4 billion in March, for a monthly contraction of 1.9%, consequent upon declines of 1.2% under currency outside banks and 2.8% under demand deposits. In twelve months, M1 dropped by 3.7%. The balance of the means of payment in the M2 concept, which corresponds to M1 plus savings deposits and private securities, increased by 0.2% in March to R$2.2 trillion. This trajectory reflected declines of 2% under M1 and 0.3% under savings deposits (reaching a balance of R$647.3 billion), coupled with an increase of 0.9% in the balance of private securities to R$1.3 trillion. In the month, net redemptions of R$5.4 billion were observed in savings deposits and R$3.3 billion in time deposits.

M3, which comprises M2, quotas of fixed-income funds and government securities backing repurchase operations between the public and the financial sector, grew by 1.3% in the month to R$4.9 trillion, reflecting the growth of 2.5% in the balance of quotas of fixed-income funds to R$2.4 trillion. M4, which comprises M3 and government securities held by the nonfinancial public, grew by 1.5% in March and 10.9% over the last twelve months, totaling R$5.7 trillion.