Economic Information

PRESS RELEASE - October 27, 2015

Monetary Policy and Financial System Credit Operations
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I - Financial system credit operations

The balance of financial system credit operations reached R$3,160 billion in September, with expansions of 0.8% in the month and 9.1% in twelve months (compared to 0.8% and 9.7% in August, in the order). The monthly variation reflected increases of 1.2% and 0.4% in household and corporate portfolios, totaling R$1,676 billion and R$1,485 billion, respectively. The credit/GDP ratio reached 55%, up from 54.8% in August and 53.3% in September of the previous year.

Nonearmarked credit operations reached R$1,609 billion (50.9% of the total financial system portfolio), up 0.5% in the month and 4.9% in twelve months. The balance of corporate credit operations reached R$813 billion (+1% in the month), highlighting increases under discount of trade bills, other credits (mainly acquisition of receivables), and external transfers (influenced by the effect of currency depreciation). On the other hand, the portfolios of working capital and guaranteed accounts posted reductions of 0.6% and 3.8%, respectively. The balance of the nonearmarked household segment remained stable at R$796 billion, with declines in the portfolios of credit card with immediate payment and vehicles and expansions in payroll-deducted loans and other credits.

The balance of financing with earmarked resources reached R$1,552 billion (+1.1% in the month and +13.8% in twelve months). Household credit operations totaled R$689 billion (+0.8% in the month), with emphasis on the reduction of house financing, for which the 12-month growth rated dropped to 19.8%. The balance of the corporate segment grew by 1.4% in the month to R$863 billion, especially under the modalities of investment financing with Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) funds, reflecting the exchange depreciation, and rural credits.

Among economic activity segments, the balance of credit operations targeted to the manufacturing industry (R$463 billion) increased 1.3% in the month, particularly in the segment of oil and fuels. The balance of trade loans recovered in the month, reaching R$301 billion (+1.7%), while the credit balances channeled to the segments of public administration and transport totaled R$117 billion (+3.2%) and R$167 billion (+1.6%), respectively.

Considering operations above R$1,000, the portfolio of the Southeast region reached R$1,698 billion, up 1.1% in the month, especially corporate operations (+1.7%), which correspond to 60% of the region's credit operations. In the other regions, with greater participation of the household segment, credit operations grew by 0.6% in the South (to R$548 billion), 0.7% in the Northeast (to R$398 billion), 0.7% in the Central-West (to R$325 billion), and 0.7% in the North (to R$117 billion).

I. 1 - Interest and default rates

The average interest rate of financial system credit operations, including operations with nonearmarked and earmarked resources, reached 29.3% p.y. in September, increasing 0.3 p.p. in the month and 5.5 p.p. in twelve months. In the nonearmarked segment, the average cost closed at 46.2% p.y. (+0.8 p.p. in the month and 9.4 p.p. in twelve months); while, in operations with earmarked resources, it dropped to 9.8% p.y. (-0.4 p.p. in the month; +1.7 p.p. in twelve months).

In the household segment, the average interest rate rose 0.4 p.p. in the month and 6.4 p.p. in twelve months, reaching 37.4% p.y. As for household credit operations with nonearmarked resources, the average interest rate rose 1.1 p.p. to 62.3% p.y., with expansions in overdraft accounts (+10.5 p.p.) and revolving credit card (+10.8 p.p.). In the earmarked credit segment, the average cost declined 0.1 p.p. in the month to 9.8% p.y.

With regard to corporate loans, the average interest rate reached 20.4% p.y., remaining stable in the month and increasing 4 p.p. in twelve months. In operations with nonearmarked resources, the average rate rose 0.6 p.p. in the month to 29.3% p.y., especially under working capital (+0.8 p.p.) and guaranteed account (+1.3 p.p.). As for credit operations with earmarked resources, the rate dropped by 0.8 p.p. to 9.7% p.y., primarily driven by BNDES investment financing (-1 p.p.).

The bank spread of total credit operations fell by 0.3 p.p. in the month and rose by 3.1 p.p. in twelve months, closing at 18.5 p.p. Indicators corresponding to the household and corporate segments reached 26.3 p.p. (-0.2 p.p.) and 9.9 p.p. (-0.6 p.p.), respectively. In the nonearmarked segment, the spread decreased 0.5 p.p. to 31.5 p.p., while, in the earmarked segment, it decreased 0.3 p.p., reaching 3.4 p.p.

The default rate of financial system credit operations related to delays over 90 days remained stable at 3.1% in the month, up 0.2 p.p. in twelve months. Default rates also remained stable in the household and corporate segments (at 3.9% and 2.4%, respectively) and in the nonearmarked and earmarked segments (at 4.9% and 1.2%, respectively).

II - Evolution of monetary aggregates

The average daily balance of the monetary base reached R$231 billion in September, up 0.7% in the month, as a result of expansions of 3.9% in bank reserves and 0.1% in currency issued. In twelve months, a decline of 0.4% was observed.

Among the monthly flows of factors conditioning the monetary base, it should be highlighted the deposits of financing institutions, influenced by the increase of compulsory rates on time deposits from 20% to 25%, and net exchange sales in the interbank market, with contractionary impacts of R$27.6 billion and R$27.5 billion, respectively. Adjustments in operations with derivatives and operations with federal government securities, including Central Bank operations aimed at adjusting the money market liquidity, led to respective expansions of R$38.6 billion and R$12.7 billion. The impact concerning government securities reflected net placements of R$12.5 billion in the primary market and net purchases of R$25.2 billion in the secondary market.

The average daily balance of the restricted means of payment (M1) reached R$297.6 billion in September, with a reduction of 0.7% in the month, corresponding to a decrease of 1.2% in demand deposits and 0.2% in currency outside banks. In twelve months, M1 decreased 5.8%.

M2, which corresponds to M1 plus savings deposits and corporate bonds, increased 0.2% in September to R$2.2 trillion. The balance of savings accounts registered net redemptions of R$5.3 billion, reaching R$646.6 billion, dropping by 0.1% in the month. The balance of corporate bonds increased 0.5%, totaling R$1.2 trillion, influenced by net inflows of R$6 billion in time deposits.

M3, which comprises M2, quotas of fixed-income funds, and government securities backing repurchase operations between the public and the financial sector, rose by 0.5% in the month total R$4.5 trillion, reflecting an increase of 0.7% in the balance of quotas of fixed-income, funds, which totaled R$2.2 trillion. M4, which comprises M3 and government securities held by the nonfinancial public, increased 0.1% in the month and 9.1% in twelve months, totaling R$5.3 trillion.