XII Annual Inflation Targeting Seminar of the Banco Central do Brasil

        May 13-14, 2010
        Rio de Janeiro
Thursday, May 13
8:30 a.m. Registration
9:00 a.m. Opening Remarks

Henrique Meirelles, Banco Central do Brasil
Pronouncement (PDF - 145KB - Portuguese)

Carlos Hamilton Araújo, Banco Central do Brasil

Adriana Soares Sales, Banco Central do Brasil
10:40 a.m. Session I: Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Chair: Eduardo Loyo, BTG Pactual

Cyntia Freitas Azevedo, Banco Central do Brasil
Impacts of a Deficit Rule for Fiscal and Monetary Policies (PDF - 390KB - English)

Marcos Valli, Banco Central do Brasil
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction: A Simulation Based Analysis of a Two Country New Keynesian DSGE Model with Heterogeneous Households (PDF - 2.307KB - Inglês)

Commentator: Marco Bonomo, Fundação Getulio Vargas
Comments (PDF - 62KB - Portuguese)
2:00 p.m. Session II: Price Rigidity

Chair: Luiz Pereira, Banco Central do Brasil

Arnildo da Silva Correa, Banco Central do Brasil
Estimating Strategic Complementarity in a State-Dependent Pricing Model (PDF - 401KB - English)

Virgiliu Midrigan, New York University
Inventories, Markups and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models (PDF - 576KB - English)

Commentator: Ariel T. Burstein, University of California at Los Angeles
Comments (PDF - 141KB - English)
3:50 p.m. Session III: Forecasting Using Many Variables

Chair: Ilan Goldfajn, Banco Itaú BBA

Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, Banco Central do Brasil
Forecasting Brazilian Inflation Using a Large Data Set (PDF - 505KB - English)

Eliana Rocío González Molano, Banco de la República
Bayesian Model Averaging: An application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia (PDF - 1.626KB - English)

Commentator: Simon Price, Bank of England
Comments (PDF - 193KB - English)
Friday, May 14
09:00 a.m. Session IV: Real Time Variables

Chair: Alexandre Schwartsman, Banco Santander

Rafael Cusinato, Banco Central do Brasil
Output Gap and GDP in Brazil: a Real Time Data Analysis (PDF - 350KB - English)

João Victor Issler, Fundação Getulio Vargas
Constructing Coincident and Leading Indices of Economic Activity for the Brazilian Economy (PDF - 398KB - English)

Commentator: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California at Riverside
Comments (PDF - 298KB - English)
10:50 a.m. Session V: Financial Stability and Monetary Policy

Chair: Alexandre Tombini, Banco Central do Brasil

Benjamin M. Tabak, Banco Central do Brasil
Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: The Case of Brazil (PDF - 393KB - English)

Delroy M. Hunter, College of Business, University of South Florida
Financial Market Openness and Monetary Control (PDF - 479KB - English)

Commentator: Jouko Vilmunen, Bank of Finland
Comments (PDF - 105KB - English)
02:00 p.m. Panel: Potential Output Growth in Brazil

Chair: Aldo Mendes, Banco Central do Brasil

Fernando A. Veloso, Ibmec
Crescimento Econômico Brasileiro: Análise e Perspectivas (PDF - 379KB - Portuguese)

Rodrigo R. Soares, Puc-Rio
Perspectivas de Crescimento da Produtividade no Longo Prazo: Uma Visão Micro (PDF - 193KB - Portuguese)

03:30 p.m. Closing lecture
Keynote speaker: Axel A. Weber, Deutsche Bundesbank
Lessons for Monetary Policy from the Financial Crisis